The Gold Market’s Visibility Bias

In April 2026, the World Gold Council estimated net first-quarter gold purchases by central banks at 244 tonnes. In its second-quarter report at the end of July, it revised that figure to 56.5 tonnes. A difference of 187 tonnes may at first appear to undermine the idea that persistent central bank demand supports the gold price.

The full picture is considerably more complex. The same report estimates second-quarter net central bank purchases at 288.9 tonnes, a record for any second quarter. The first-half total of 345 tonnes was indeed the lowest since 2022, but it consisted of an exceptionally weak first quarter and an exceptionally strong second one.

Price also changed significantly between the two periods. The quarterly average LBMA gold price was $4,872.9 per ounce in Q1 and $4,506.3 in Q2. Central banks therefore bought far more when gold was about 8 percent cheaper on average. The World Gold Council itself identifies the lower price as a possible source of support for demand.

This looks less like an end to central bank interest and more like price-sensitive, opportunistic reserve management. Central banks are long-term institutions, but that does not mean they buy at the same pace at every price.

Figures With Different Degrees of Certainty

The revised Q1 figure of 56.5 tonnes incorporates information received through July 24, almost four months after the quarter ended. By the same cutoff date, only three to four weeks of post-quarter information were available for the Q2 estimate of 288.9 tonnes. The second-quarter figure is therefore less mature and may be revised just as the first-quarter figure was.

Part of the revision also involved reclassifying demand previously treated as central bank buying into the “OTC and other” category. At least some of the gold demand in question did not disappear from the market. What changed was the World Gold Council’s ability to identify it with sufficient confidence as central bank buying.

The negative information is therefore not the disappearance of 187 tonnes of physical demand. It is that the identity and motivation behind part of the demand previously attributed to stable, strategic central bank accumulation are in fact unknown.

What the Global Total Conceals

The first-half net figure of 345 tonnes combines entirely different processes. Poland increased its holdings by 82 tonnes for security and reserve-diversification reasons. China purchased 40 tonnes and continued its long accumulation sequence. As gold-producing countries, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have a distinctive relationship between domestic output and central bank reserves.

On the other side, Turkey mobilized gold for currency and liquidity management, partly through swaps. Russia sold under sanctions and financing pressure. Azerbaijan’s state oil fund reversed part of its earlier accumulation. These sales cannot all be interpreted in the same way, nor do they necessarily indicate a loss of confidence in gold. In some cases, they demonstrate precisely that gold is a liquid reserve that can be used in a crisis.

Why the ETF Voice Is the Loudest

Western ETF data exert a disproportionate influence on the mainstream financial view of gold. They can be measured daily, communicated easily, and discussed by visible asset managers, bank strategists, and institutional investors.

By contrast, much of the OTC market, physical bullion trade, and official-sector activity is opaque. Its participants are less visible, the data arrive late, and classifications can change retrospectively. What can be measured precisely therefore receives more media weight than what may be larger but remains unseen.

In the second quarter, gold ETFs lost 45 tonnes, while bar and coin purchases reached 307 tonnes, OTC and other demand reached 327 tonnes, and central bank demand was estimated at 289 tonnes. Yet ETF outflows can still dominate short-term market interpretation because they are the fastest available data and the closest to the mainstream institutional language of finance.

The central bank revision is therefore about more than demand for gold. It also shows how visibility becomes a substitute for significance, and how a darker market story can emerge even when the complete data set is far more contradictory.

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The purpose of Unus Multorum is not to tell readers what to think about a particular event. Its purpose is to reveal the connections that allow every reader to form their own conclusions.